Cheltenham Day 4 Betting Tips
x5 Racing Post NAPs Champion Paul Jacobs deep-dives into the cards for Cheltenham Day 4 betting tips and predictions.
Triumph Hurdle Betting Tips
I don’t think that the Irish challenge is particularly strong but I do think GOSHEN is an absolute monster. So there’s only one wager for me in this Friday opener. At betting odds of 3/1 I suspect he remains pretty reasonable value in the context of this renewal.
Yes, there is room to improve in his hurdling technique but I am sure his shrewd trainer will have worked extensively on this.
The lay out of the new track also favours him. There is such a long run from the second last to the line that his hurdling in the closing stages won’t come under so much pressure. I can see the son of Derby winner Authorized powering up the hill.
Of the Irish raiders, I prefer the experienced A Wave of the Sea to Aspire Tower. WhileI can’t help but feel that Navajo Pass will outrun his insulting odds.
Solo is also worth a mention based on his British debut. But don’t be too convinced, Solo is an unknown entity.
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County Handicap Hurdle Betting Tips
Some yards are just shrewder than others at laying out horses for tricky handicaps. That is exactly what Dan Skelton has done with the last two winners.
This time around, his 2018 hero, Mohaayed, is fairly weighted on his seventh last year behind stable mate Ch’tibello. I’ll tell you that you can forgive his runs this season on account of the deep ground.
Ciel de Neige is the form horse in the race based on his Betfair Hurdle run. However, the most appealing runner in the betting has to be the top weight ELDORADO ALLEN.
Colin Tizzard’s charge will relish the rough and tumble of an event like this. Eldorado Allen targeted the County Hurdle all season following a light campaign and this is his easiest task to date. His third to Quel Destin was a fair run in the context of this race. This is especially true since he wouldn’t suit the small field that day. Odds of 16/1 make him an outstanding each-way play.
Albert Bartlett Hurdle Betting Tips
I was convinced that Mossy Fen was the right choice for this staying novice event, but for some reason Nigel Twiston-Davies ran him in the Ballymore Hurdle.
I doubt whether Ramses de Teillee will run on the drying ground. With this in mind, I see a huge race for COBBLER’S WAY and Henry De Bromhead.
This son of Oscar is a fine chasing prospect, but his progressive form over timber should take him another step forward.
He was a massive eye catcher when staying on stoutly behind Latest Exhibition in a grade one at Leopardstown. I will be astounded if this stiffer test doesn’t suit him especially when trying the three mile trip for the first time.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Tips
In one of the most open renewals for many a year, the pivotal factor in the Blue Riband could well be the drying ground. Market leaders Santini and holder Al Boum Photo will suffer from this.
It doesn’t mean they can’t win, but it just draws them a little bit closer to the chasing pack in the field. We have a real conundrum in this race.
Chief beneficiary is the dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux who patently didn’t stay 12 months ago.
In nine career runs, Santini has only encountered ground quicker than soft once and he was well beaten on it.
Al Boum Photo has won on a better surface, but he has always been regarded as a cast iron stayer. One question remains though: does he still have that high cruising speed that will give him the edge?
To my eyes Delta Work, despite two grade one wins to his name, wasn’t impressive in either contest. It’s hard to know what to make about Lostintranslation after his Kempton debacle.
Monalee is not an out and out stayer in my book and I think we have probably seen the best of Presenting Percy. So, that leaves the improbable choice of KEMBOY.
I say improbable because he is held by several of these on his Irish form and is no doubt better on a flatter track.. However, if the ground does genuinely dry out to good-to-soft he could yet be the mover in the betting market. At around 8/1 he could represent the each-way value.
St James Place Foxhunters Chase Betting Tips
If he were to run to within 20lbs of his Gold Cup second place in 2017 then MINELLA ROCCO would be a shoe in here. He showed some of his old zest last time out when beating the current champion Hazel Hill at Wetherby.
The state of the turf will be a major factor in how he performs. Minella Rocco jumps best off good ground, and if the conditions are just right we can expect a strong performance in the Foxhunters Chase.
Enda Bolger’s STAKER WALLACE is a huge danger. Despite his limited betting odds of around 8/1 he remains very much a work in progress.
Of the bigger priced runners, Marcle Ridge has solid each-way claims if his free running antics can be harnessed here. He is better than he showed when put in his place by another entry Caid Du Berlais.
Grand Annual Handicap Chase Betting Tips
My original choice was the well treated Castlegrace Paddy who has been set some pretty stiff tasks over the past couple of seasons.
He has run well on a good surface before, but is inconsistent on the surface. If he does become a significant mover during the lead up to the race, then he would be well worth a saver. If you’re looking for an outside bet on this race, then Castlegrace Paddy is the one to back.
Greaneteen hasn’t touched a twig in three unbeaten runs over the larger obstacles. He’s one runner that would be best served by pacey race. Paloma Blue wasn’t disgraced in last year’s Arkle but was put in his place at Leopardstown last time out by ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU.
Jack Kennedy made too much use of Eclair de Beaufeu in last year’s County Hurdle when he went for glory turning for home. Coming down at the last, there was no gas left in the tank.
He needs to be held onto for as long as possible and use his turn of foot to good effect on the run to the line. However, at the right price, he could be worth a punt..
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Tips
ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN was a massive eye catcher at Leopardstown in December. His shrewd trainer has obviously protected his mark for this.
Twice a winner at the Galway Festival last year, but a huge gamble. There’s no doubt that he has first class claims of lifting the finale especially if he gets the good ground he loves.
Of course, in such a big field there are any number of dangers. Column of Fire, the unexposed Five O’Clock and Assemble could all lift the trophy in the Cheltenham finale.
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