Cheltenham Day 3 Tips
x5 Racing Post NAPs Champion Paul Jacobs deep-dives into the cards for Cheltenham Day 3 tips and predictions.
Marsh Novices Chase Betting Odds
With the most likely winner of this race in my eyes, Fakir D’oudairies, having defected to the Arkle and Allaho now in the RSA Chase, this race has taken on a completely different complexion in the past week. It’s looking a whole lot weaker than it promised to be seven days ago.
Itchy Feet is half the age of Faugheen, but both have top class form at this distance. The former favoured in this event.
I thought ‘The Machine’ had a very tough race at Leopardstown. That could well have been his cup final whereas Olly Murphy’s charge comes here on the back of a more impressive success at Sandown. His betting odds of 9/2 look spot on.
However, if the ground dries up enough I am willing to give RESERVE TANK another chance. He came back to Colin Tizzard’s not physically 100% from his run at Newbury. However, the word is he impressed at home since. At betting odds of 12/1 he could provide outstanding value.
Willie Mullins still has faith in Bapaume despite a poor round of fencing last time out. But he would also be worth a second and may be a back-up each-way bet look if returning to his Naas form.
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Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final Betting Tips
Like the Coral Hurdle, there are a number of handicappers laid out for this. I had a short list of eight from the maximum field of 24.
The likes of proven grade one chaser The Storyteller, Phoenix Way, Kilbricken Storm and Relegate could all be involved. You can make a strong case for each of them.
But I am rather sweet on the claims of RAPPER at betting odds in the region of 20/1.
I think he will reverse recent form with Skandiburg at the track on New Year’s Day when they didn’t go anywhere near quick enough for him and a quicker tempt will suit this lightly raced six-year-old.
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Ryanair Chase Betting Tips
Min is the highest rated in the field and 4lbs clear on my private figures. But his Cheltenham form figures read 225, albeit finishing behind the mighty Altior on each occasion. His career best efforts have been on flatter tracks, with a zenith run coming at Aintree in last year’s Melling Chase.
A Plus Tard put up the performance of last year’s Festival when scooting away with the Close Brothers Novice Chase. He bettered that performance by 5lbs when trouncing Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown; his chance is there for all to see.
This looks a deeper race than the one won so tenaciously by Frodon last year. However, you can never discount this terrier of a horse. If Aso comes back to form then he has a chance of hitting the three again after last year’s second place finish.
But for a snap of value I am going to plump for SHATTERED LOVE at betting odds of 25/1. Winner of the JLT two years ago she has been given some tough tasks since. The conditions are optimum for her and I think she is overpriced.
She is preferred to Riders Onthe Storm who had a desperately hard race at Ascot and the aforementioned A Plus Tard.
Stayers Hurdle Betting Tips
Paisley Park is some machine and it is hard to oppose him. Having backed him at 33/1 last year before he won at Haydock, I was standing by the last flight at Cheltenham when he gave me the shock of my life by belting the last, but somehow finding a leg.
Of course at odds-on he is no value at all unless you have managed to save a bundle under your mattress this year. My each-way tip at huge betting odds is RONALD PUMP.
Well beaten over fences this season, albeit by top class fellow novices, that pathway has been shelved for a return to hurdles.
His second to Treacysenniscorthy at Leopardstown, giving that fair yard stick a massive 29lbs, gives him more than a fair chance of hitting the frame in this grade one. I would prefer to back him each-way at 25/1 each-way than Paisley Park at 4/6…..just do the maths!
Brown Advisory and Merriebelle Stable Handicap Chase Betting Tips
This looks the perfect vehicle for SIMPLY THE BETTS who looks a graded chaser in the making and yet gets in here off a handicap rating of just 149.
I thought both his fencing and his attitude was simply superb when seeing off Imperial Aura over the course and distance last time out.
The ground has certainly come in the favour of Le Bague Au Roi. She should have quite a few of these in trouble a long way out. However, it is interesting that Warren kept her away from this venue siting the fact the flatter terrain suits her.
Daylesford Mares Novice Hurdle Betting Tips
Minella Melody has always been the apple of Henry de Bromhead’s eye. He told me that the daughter of Flemensfirth has any amount of improvement in her. In fact, that likelihood of a drying surface would also be a plus as she is such a lovely moving mare. I suspect she is the most likely winner of this novice event.
Yet, I can’t help feeling that ARD ABHAINN could run her close.
Gordon Elliott has taken his time with this late maturing six-year-old. She has two lengths to find with Henry’s charge on their Voler La Vedette form, but has since improved 6lbs on my private ratings when trouncing Rebel Og at Thurles. She will do for me at each-way betting odds.
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase Betting Tips
The final Cheltenham Day 3 tips comes in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase.
La Breuil will be a popular choice to follow up his NH Chase win last year running from a mark of 145. However, the ground may not be quite as soft as he needs it to show his best form.
Phillip Hobbs put up Deise Aba for this one. And a rating of 142 underestimates his latent talent.
These two are rightly feared, but big odds put me off. Therefore, I am willing to row in with THE KINGS WRIT.
A winning pointer in his younger days at two and a half and three miles. He ran two very solid races behind Captain Drake and Worthy Farm on his last two starts. The latter ran arguably a career best. A very solid gallop throughout the key to that perform which is a guarantee at Cheltenham. Betting odds of 25/1 are wide of the mark in my mind.
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