Cheltenham Day 1 Tips
x5 Racing Post NAPs Champion Paul Jacobs deep-dives into the cards for Cheltenham Day 1 tips and predictions.
Supreme Novices Hurdle Betting Tips
Let’s open my Cheltenham day 1 tips with the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Shishkin is my favourite for this opening cavalry charge. The way he dismissed his field with aplomb in the Sidney Banks Memorial was indeed impressive. What you must decide is whether his current betting odds are too short.
The way he travels through his races suggest he is a possible top notcher. He has solid claims in a race that will be run to play to his strengths.
I believe there’s more value further down the betting list. CAPTAIN GUINNESS fits the bill.
Twice he has raced too keenly for his own good, but on both occasions, he has impressed through the race. His maiden success was supplemented with an even better second in the Moscow Flyer. If he settled better, there is every reason to believe that he would have seen out Andy Dufresne.
Betting odds of 16/1 look too big after the final declaration stage, but Henry de Bromhead always said that he is a work in progress.
Across the rest of the field, I have plenty of respect for Asterion Forlonge. Both Chantry House and Fiddlerontheroof will suit the forecasted rain. They really need a test of stamina over this trip against essentially faster horses.
Arkle Chase Betting Tips
The first thing to note for this novice chase speed test is that there is plenty of pace up front. I doubt anything can lead all the way.
Notebook’s sound jumping technique is a huge plus, but will he get up the final climb? I fancy that he may be asked to race a bit further back.
Cash Back would be the biggest beneficiary under such circumstances. He has the raw ability to go close with a clear round, even though he does have a quirk or two.
Brewin’upastorm will travel strongly from off the pace, but I’m not convinced by his fencing. He needs to improve a lot in that department. Therefore, I suggest ESPRIT DU LARGE at double figure betting odds.
If he were trained by a Henderson or a Mullins, he would be half the betting odds. As a big raw-boned individual, there’s plenty of scope for improvement. His form is right up there with the best of these.
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Ultima Handicap Chase Betting Tips
The recent change in weather forecast turned the race on its head. With soft ground almost guaranteed likes Mister Malarky, Kildisart, Cobra de Mai and Le Bague Au Roi will struggle.
Top weight Vinndication will contest grade one events next season and as such has to go close even off a mark of 159.
But in a race where stamina could be the main asset needed a chance is taken on ATLANTA ABLAZE.
Henry Daly’s entry charge found two and a half miles too short last time out. He is better judged on a game success in a Listed contest at Market Rasen.
At bigger betting odds, testing conditions will also favour recent Kelso winner Big River and Mulcahys Hill.
Champion Hurdle Betting Tips
I believe this is one of the worst renewals of the timber topping championship in the last 20 years. It won’t take an awful lot of winning.
EPATANTE remains my winning prediction and the mares’ allowance is merely the cream on the cake.
Her poor run in last year’s mare’s novice event was put down to the effects of a flu jab. Although there remains a slight doubt about her replicating her flat course form.
Call Me Lord is surely better than he showed last time out at Sandown. But like Ballyandy, Pentland Hills and the inconsistent Sharjah he doesn’t look a stand out candidate.
Fusil Raffles remains one of the unexposed types in the field – one bad run is worth forgiving. While very deep ground brings northern raider Cornerstone Lad firmly into the equation on his Fighting Fifth success.
Close Brothers Mares Hurdle Betting Tips
Had BENIE DES DEAUX opted for the Stayers Hurdle this would have been a shoe-in for the Irish Champion Hurdle heroine Honeysuckle. She is unbeaten in seven outings to date.
Had she not hesitated and bashed the last hurdle at Leopardstown I suspect she would have run out a very impressive winner. Her smooth travelling style and normally efficient hurdling is a potent combination for this event.
But the Willie Mullins’ super mare does run here, and her guaranteed stamina will come into play on the testing ground and she may outstay her market rival from the turn in. Her win in the Galmoy was achieved with ridiculous ease and I have her 4lbs clear on my private ratings.
Title holder, Roksana, needs to find 4lbs on my private ratings with the Henry de Bromhead runner so a much bigger danger could come in the form of Elfile who remains open to improvement.
She split last year’s runner-up, Stormy Ireland and Black Tears in the Advent Insurance Mares Hurdle and exaggerated hold-up tactics could see her reverse the form here.
Northern Trust Company Novices Handicap Chase Betting Tips
Not as much strength in depth as looked likely last week and that could open up the door for the hugely likeable ESPOIR DE GUEYE.
The Venetia Williams’ trained entry may not be the quickest in the line-up, but he is a brilliant jumper and gallops all day long and he could have these in trouble a long way from home.
He improved an absolute bundle from his win at Exeter to his Ascot success. The 14lbs rise is fully deserved.
Of his rivals, Imperial Aura has impressed in defeat on his last two runs, not staying three miles behind Pym and then running the smart Simply The Betts to a length and a half seven weeks ago.
National Hunt Chase Betting Tips
The National Hunt Chase closes out my Cheltenham Day 1 tips and the first day of the racing at Prestbury Park.
Sitting next to Ruby Walsh at a recent preview night he told me that Patrick Mullins would get Carefully Selected home in this stamina sapping finale.
But that suggested that his jumping remains suspect and he hasn’t looked anywhere near the finished article in that arena. At betting odds of 13/8 and with that Achilles heel I cannot put him up here.
The wager has to be the strong staying and sound jumping NEWTIDE following two fluent wins at Ffos Las and Wetherby.
A real old-fashioned chaser, the betting odds fluctuated from 33/1 to 10/1 in the past 10 days. Kim Sage rates Newtide very highly. Springfield Fox and outsider Redzor are also worth a second glance.
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